October Surprise: Deb Fischer Sweating!

Shaky ground for Deb Fischer.

Sen. Deb Fischer (R-NE) and Sen. Pete Ricketts (R-NE) are up for reelection this year.

Fischer for a full term and Ricketts to finish out a full term.

The Drudge Report slashed a headline saying that Republicans will push more money into races like Fischer, Ricketts, Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL) and Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX).

While I place Nebraska, Florida and Texas in the Republican section, Ohio, Nevada and Pennsylvania will be held by the Democratic incumbents. The states of Arizona, Montana and Maryland are toss up.

Dan Osborn is running against Fischer as an independent. He got the backing of Democrats but he refuses their endorsement. 

They are considering pouring money into his race. 

Osborn has done his level best to keep national Democrats at an arm’s length. He has vowed he would not caucus with either party, a break from the four independent lawmakers who are currently in the chamber and join Senate Democrats for organizing purposes. Osborn, who led a union strike in Omaha against Kellogg in 2021, has rejected links to national liberal figures like Bernie Sanders or Chuck Schumer, and neither is exactly trying to link Osborn’s fortunes to their individual brands.

“People are just thirsty for a change, on both sides of the aisle,” Osborn told The Washington Post. Fischer, meanwhile, has labeled her independent opponent a “Trojan horse” for Democrats.

Osborn is the president of Bakery, Confectionery, Tobacco Workers and Grain Millers International Union Local 50G. Osborn led the strike at Kellogg's Omaha plant in 2021.

All this name calling and dehumanizing of an opponent. Fischer has no memorable accomplishments. Fischer is a Trump loyalist and opposer of Biden.

There are no notable things I can say about her other being the third woman elected to Nebraska. Most of the bill she introduced or cosponsored are culture wars.

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Sen. Angus King (I-ME) are up for reelection and are considered safe Democrat/Independent. 

Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ) will retire. She has not endorsed Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ), Kari Lake, Vice President Kamala Harris or former president Donald J. Trump. Arizona is toss up.

Sen. Joe Manchin (I-WV) will retire. He has not endorsed Harris or Trump. His seat is likely going Republican with West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice being the nominee.

Dan Osborn could pull an upset.

Osborn's political platform focuses on protecting small businesses, family farmers, and workers. He supports raising the national minimum wage and a lower tax rate on overtime work; guaranteeing access to abortion; facilitating union organizing; protecting gun rights; securing U.S. borders and exploring ways to legalize some undocumented workers; legalizing and taxing marijuana; and improved railroad safety. He supports a "libertarian approach" to hot-button issues and says that government should be kept out of private lives. He supports the right-to-repair of consumer goods such as cars and electronics. Osborn also supports moving the retirement age back to 65.

Asked about his prospects in the race by the New York Times, Osborn said: "I've gone up against a major American corporation. I stood up for what I thought was right, and I won." Of the major candidates in the 2024 United States presidential election he said (before Joe Biden withdrew): "I think they're both too old. I think they're both incompetent. There's a good chance I won't vote for president."

The race between Osborn and Fischer is unusually competitive for Nebraska, which traditionally is a safe Republican Senate seat, and potentially important in determining partisan control of the Senate. Osborn has raised more campaign funds, mostly small-dollar donations, than any independent candidate in Nebraska's history. In an August 2024 Split Research poll, Fischer held a narrow lead of 39% to 38% over Osborn, within the margin of error, while 23% of voters were undecided. The poll led the Nebraska Examiner to call the election a tight race. The last independent to win a Senate seat in Nebraska was George Norris in 1936.