Saturday, November 05, 2016

Nate Silver: Your Guess Is Good As Mine!

Don't expect a blowout for Clinton says Nate Silver.

Going into the last three days of the presidential election. Hillary Clinton has a 60% chance at winning the presidency. A big drop from 85%. Mainly due to James Comey's FBI memo to Republicans over them goddamn emails.

Clinton is confident. She built a good ground game with the GOTV (get out to vote).

Florida, Nevada, Ohio, New Hampshire, North Carolina and Iowa are up for grabs and the Republican nominee Donald Trump needs these states to win the White House.

Nate Silver, the genius of stats is stomped by his own calculations. is the best indicator of who's likely going to be president. Today, he's says that it's anybody's game and the Democrats are panicking.

I conclude that Donald Trump has 40% chance at winning the presidency. It's driven the narrative that Trump is anchoring the emails around Hillary Clinton's neck. Also Republicans who were on the fence are "coming home" as Mike Pence puts it.

Silver is being criticized by Huffington Post editor in chief Ryan Grim for allegedly "putting the thumb on the scales."

It sparked a brief feud between the two.

Silver is right. The Democrats should take nothing for granted. It's still toss up. Clinton doesn't need Ohio and Florida to win. She needs to hold on to states she already carrying.

So far Trump has studied the trends and his campaign felt an opportunity is ahead in states like Michigan, Pennsylvania and Minnesota.

No comments:


Related Posts with Thumbnails