Friday, December 07, 2012

Right Direction!


Unemployment for November is out and it's certainly going to drive the narrative in favor of President Barack Obama. Since winning reelection, the president is enjoying a honeymoon period in which his job approval ratings are actually improving among key groups.

Hispanics and non-married women are shifting to strongly Democrat and the president is relishing in the benefits of higher turnout among these groups. This news of the November jobs report offers the president a stronger hand in the debt ceiling and fiscal cliff/tax increase debate.

Unemployment for December went to 7.7% after the Department of Labor counted over 146,000 jobs were added. Although the damages from last month's Hurricane Sandy knocked the numbers down, it's a modest and yet better outlook for the future of the United States.

Now of course, the Republicans and conservative media will spin these issues into another talking point about how the country is "so screwed up" under the president's leadership. This argument is not appealing to a core group of Americans the Republicans once bragged about. Independents are slightly favoring the president right now and the Republicans are going to take the blame if they fail at compromising over the sequester (fiscal cliff) and debt ceiling talks.

Also this bit of news also comes one month after the national elections. President Barack Obama trounced perennial loser Mitt Romney. The president was certified the winner of the election by carrying a majority of districts and winning the popular vote.

An alternative measure of unemployment, which counts those who have given up looking for jobs as well as those working part-time for economic reasons, also edged lower to 14.4 percent.

Economists had been expecting a gain of 93,000 in nonfarm payrolls and a steadying of the unemployment rate at 7.9 percent, though estimates varied widely.

Deutsche Bank's Joseph LaVorgna, for instance, forecast a gain of just 25,000 positions, due in large part to residual effects from Superstorm Sandy.

Market reserach firm TrimTabs, conversely, projected 202,000 new jobs, though it expected the government's count to be lower.

Previous month's employment gains also were lowered through revisions.

The Labor Department's initial report for October showed a gain of 171,000 jobs, but now is listed at 138,000. The September gain of 148,000 was taken down to 132,000.

Much of the November gains came in retail, which added 53,000, while professional services grew 43,000.

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