Monday, October 29, 2012

Nate Silver: Likely Obama! | Right Wing Attacks!

I've got the numbers. - Nate Silver
The right wing is going bananas over a pollster's analysis of the general election. They go on to attack the pollster for being gay!

Nate Sliver is the founder of FiveThirtyEight, the political blog that covers the elections. The New York Times found his information very reliable. The Republicans are focusing on the polls showing that Mitt Romney is leading in the polls. But Silver strikes the notion down! He predicts that it's likely that even if the polls show that Romney is leading, he is actually losing. The state of Ohio and Florida are potential bellweathers for both candidates. Ohio is ground zero this election. It's 18 electoral votes determines who could become the president.

Mitt Romney has less than 50 campaign offices. The president has nearly double that amount and then some. The president comes to Ohio and urges his crowds that if you want to keep him working for the American people, don't wait for November 6, vote early.

I've done it. And it's having an impact.

Early voting hurts this guy. If the president can get his supporters out then they're be a real shake up!

But so far, Nate Silver predicts that the president is likely going to win this election. Conservatives are crying foul on this one. So far when you look at Rasmussen Polls, a known conservative leaning poll it has the president trailing Mitt Romney in likely voters. The likely voters are the ones that may be the key to the election.
Dean Chambers of Unskewed Polls.
As the candidates take a break from attacking one other, their surrogates are out in full force. Vice President Joe Biden and Bill Clinton will stand in for the president. Senator John McCain (R-Arizona), Senator Marco Rubio (R-Florida), and Newt Gingrich will fill in for Mitt Romney and Congressman Paul Ryan (R-Wisconsin).

The feud between pollsters started when Dean Chambers, the founder of Unskewed Polls took to the internet and called out Sliver for being gay!

The Advocate, a news agitator for the LGBT community reported that Silver called out the founder of a conspiratorial  website called "Unskewed Polls," Dean Chambers , who wrote an op-ed  attacking Silver as "a man of very small stature" and "a thin and effeminate man with a soft-sounding voice."

Scott Rasmussen, Republican pollster.
Apparently only truly manly men can analyze polling data. Chambers's website recasts all mainstream polls with Republican-leaning survey samples so they are truly "unskewed" — or shall we say "fair and balanced?" He's gotten a lot of attention in conservative blogs and on the bearer of that tagline, Fox News.

Silver is a self-described geek  who writes for the New York Times and is the founder of FiveThirtyEight.

One of our favorite pieces of Nate Silver data analysis was his conclusion that gay friendlier states have lower divorce rates.

But he's known for having correctly predicted the popular vote in 2008 within one percentage point, correctly predicted the outcome in every state except Indiana plus accurately forecast all of the Senate races. Silver is also the author of the book, The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't . He finds Chambers pretty amusing.

"This is pretty awesome," Silver wrote on Twitter . "Per , I am 'a thin and effeminate man' & therefore not to be trusted."

Silver summarized  the attack this way: "Unskewedpolls argument: Nate Silver seems kinda gay + ??? = Romney landslide!"

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