Wednesday, March 13, 2024

Ken Buck Out Fast!

Ken Buck's exit made Lauren Boebert's reelection chances slim to none.

He did not endorse the insufferable Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-CO). Former president Donald J. Trump did and it will either help or hurt her in the race to replace outgoing member, the far right Rep. Ken Buck (R-CO).

Boebert has a 45% chance of winning the Republican primary.

Buck announced by the end of next week, he is gone. That makes the House Republican majority only 2 seats. If another Republican quits, dies in office or expelled, Democrats retake Congress.

“Today, I am announcing I will depart Congress at the end of next week,” Buck said in a post on X, formerly Twitter. “I look forward to staying involved in our political process, as well as spending more time in Colorado and with my family.”

Buck said the House has become “dysfunctional” in an interview on CNN following his announcement and that Congress has “just devolved into this bickering and nonsense and not really doing the job for the American people.” 

“It is the worst year of the nine years and three months that I’ve been in Congress and having talked to former members, it is the worst year in 40-50 years to be in Congress,” he added.

Buck has often broke from the House GOP conference on multiple issues. He was one of eight GOP lawmakers who voted to oust former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and has criticized his party's embrace of Trump and his false claims the 2020 presidential election was stolen.

As the party makeup currently stands, at 219 Republicans and 213 Democrats, House Republicans can only afford to lose two votes on party-line votes. With Buck leaving, that will trim the GOP majority to 218 seats, meaning two votes is still the cutoff for House Republicans.

But it’s not often the House sees full attendance for votes which means Buck’s departure will force House Republican leadership to be even more calculating when putting partisan legislation on the floor.

So thus, a special primary and election could come forth. If Gov. Jared Polis of Colorado issues a special election, that person could end up winning the general election as well.

Could be the end of Lauren Boebert. 

If Boebert was to win the nomination, she will be the candidate to fulfill a full two year term. If the person in the special election wins but also announces a bid to be the nominee for the general election, that could cost Boebert her chances.

Late last year, however, Boebert announced she was running for Buck’s seat after she barely won reelection against Democrat Adam Frisch in her district. Frisch is running for the 3rd District again, which would have created another expensive and competitive House race for Boebert.  

Both parties will nominate candidates for the June 25 special election for the 4th District being vacated by Buck. Whoever wins that contest to fill out the remaining months of Buck’s term could have an easier path to winning the election in November to serve a full two-year term representing the 4th District in Congress.

That’s left Boebert in a bit of pickle and with a tough decision to make.

She could resign from her House seat early and seek the GOP nomination in the special election for Buck’s seat, hoping it would better position her for winning the two-year term in November.

The problem with doing that is it would further eat into the House GOP’s narrow majority. Republicans can only afford to lose two votes from their side of the aisle to prevail if Democrats are unified. Buck’s exit does not change that calculus, but it does give the party even less leeway for unexpected sicknesses and absences.

A Boebert resignation would also trigger a special election for her seat, which could flip for Democrats.  

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