Friday, February 01, 2013

Groundhog's Day!



Unemployment figures for January are released and yet the picture stays the same. The jobs report released today stated that 157,000 jobs were added during the month of January and yet our unemployment number still rose to 7.9%.

This is the first time since the reelection, unemployment numbers rose. Still impressive that the country added jobs but yet those who dropped out of the workforce and the seasonal layoffs from retail didn't contribute to the climb in unemployment.

President Barack Obama and the Congress are now debating over the sequester. The sequester will have some major impact on defense and domestic spending. The president signals a fight with Congressional Republicans over spending cuts to safety nets.

The president is going to be more aggressive against Republicans. The figures shows that nonfarm payrolls rose 157,000 for the first month of 2013 while the unemployment rate edged higher to 7.9 percent, news unlikely to alter the Federal Reserve's monetary policy or instill confidence that the recovery is gaining steam.

Economists were looking for 160,000 net new jobs created with the unemployment rate holding steady at 7.8 percent.

The ho-hum jobs numbers for January were accompanied by substantial revisions higher for previous months, according to the report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

November's numbers rose from the originally reported 161,000 to 247,000, while December was pushed upward to 196,000 from 155,000.

"The gains we've received on the January jobs report are the start of positive readings for the foreseeable future," said Todd Schoenberger, managing partner at LandColt Capital. "The first quarter has historically delivered surprises to the upside anyway, so expect January revisions and February-March readings to be significantly positive."

Retail led the way in January with 33,000 new jobs, while construction rose 28,000.

For the first time in nearly two years, the average duration of unemployment made a significant move lower.

That number fell to 35.3 weeks, its lowest since January 2011.

However, a separate unemployment measure that also takes into account those who have quit looking for jobs as well as those working part-time for economic reasons remained unchanged at 14.4 percent.

Though some recent economic reports, particularly in housing, show an economy on the mend, gains in jobs have been hard to come by.

Average job creation for 2012 was around 151,000, considered near the benchmark for the unemployment rate to stabilize but not fall.

Most significantly, Federal Reserve monetary policy is now tied directly to the jobless rate. The U.S. central bank has said it will not alter its zero interest rate policy until the jobless rate falls to 6.5 percent and inflation eclipses 2.5 percent.

As the month begins, we're looking forward to the spring hiring season. Many Americans are looking optimistic about the future and the stock market has seen it's biggest gains post recession.

And while conservative agitators continue to whine off about the president's "failures" and openly rooting for an economic collapse, the rest of us are looking forward.

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