Better Start Worrying!

Turnout or burnout?

In the final weeks of the off year elections with New Jersey and Virginia governors races, the two Democrats are not a sure lock.

Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-NJ) and former Virginia representative Abigail Spanberger could face a disaster if the Democratic turnout is low. With President Donald J. Trump putting his full endorsements of Republican challengers Jack Ciattarelli and Virginia Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears, the Democrats better fear the potential of a loss in two states former vice president Kamala Harris carried in 2024.

The government shutdown, economic uncertainty, inflation, lack of direction from both parties, politicial violence, unemployment and Israel will be major factors to who will win in the coming weeks.

Trump's neverending distractions will not be a factor. 

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It all comes down to the pocketbook.

If Americans feel their lives ain't improving under the Trump administration, then it could hurt Republicans. But if the Republican turnout is strong despite frustrations, they could eek wins.

Democrats are still dealing with an issue of popularity. With Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY), Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) and Democratic National Committee leader Ken Martin still wandering in the woods, a miracle is needed. The young voters, Latino, Arab, Muslim, Black men and college educated are not reliable as they used to be. White men and women are more Republican than the rest of us.

Earle-Sears parrots on military experience and downplaying racial politics. Her rhetoric is extreme but catnip to MAGAland.

Virginia is close.

Virginia Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears is now throwing out the race card. She is attacking former president Barack Obama for not accepting her as a strong Black woman. She used the Norfolk rally as a reason. In 2024, Obama pleaded to Black men to cast aside the noise and pull support for Harris. 

Earle-Sears hits back saying that Obama doesn't think Black voters are authentic.

For one thing, Earle-Sears is anti-Black from the start. Lit

Her campaign isn't talking about issues facing Virginians. I know she is addressing them but it seems like Earle-Sears is betting on culture wars and guilt by association. The government shutdown should be a top issue for Virginians.

Hampton Roads has the largest U.S. Navy installations in the United States. If U.S. military officials aren't paid, it's an issue.

The Pentagon, CIA and FBI are located in Virginia. If federal agents and federal workers aren't paid, that is an issue.

Free speech but a nasty depiction of a Black woman. 

Dulles International Airport, Reagan National Airport, Norfolk-Virginia Beach International Airport, Richmond International Airport, Newport News-Williamsburg-Hampton International Airport and every airport has a TSA officer.

If people are working day to day with no indication of getting a paycheck, there will be frustration.

Hurricanes could affect New Jersey and Virginia.

Although both states lean Democratic, Republicans think they have a shot in both races, which would blunt any national narratives of a mass rebellion against Trump and his party.

Political forecasters give the GOP a better shot in New Jersey, where their nominee, Ciattarelli, is nipping away at Sherrill's lead in the polls.

One poll in September had Sherrill, a former Navy pilot, up by eight percentage points, while the next one showed them tied. The most recent survey, from Oct. 22, has Sherrill leading by five points.

In Virginia, Spanberger, an ex-CIA officer, leads by roughly 7% in the most recently released Virginia Commonwealth University poll, although other surveys give her a better edge. But an embarrassing revelation about Virginia attorney general Democratic nominee Jay Jones is shaking up the contest and serving as the last-minute rallying cry for Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears, whose aggressive campaign for governor has struggled to gain traction.

Sherrill's Navy service an asset and potential liability

Sherrill burst onto the New Jersey political scene in 2018. In her first campaign for office, she won a once-solidly Republican congressional seat by about 15%. She was one of three Democrats to flip New Jersey seats in the 2018 anti-Trump "blue wave."

Now in her fourth term representing a suburban blue district that covers portions of Essex County, just west of New York City, the 53-year-old congresswoman is looking to trade Washington for Trenton.

Sherrill grew up in Reston, Virginia in the suburbs of Washington, D.C., and after high school earned an undergraduate degree from the U.S. Naval Academy. She served as a Navy helicopter pilot and and has campaigned on that experience. In the video announcing her current campaign she sported her Navy flight jacket.

After 10 years in the Navy, she earned a law degree from Georgetown University, went to work in litigation in New York City and became a federal prosecutor in New Jersey.

Mikie Sherrill and Jack Ciattarelli both are supporters of Israel. Will this sink Sherrill?

Sherrill's Navy experience has been a hallmark of her campaign for governor, but it became a source of controversy when her entire U.S. Navy record was released to an ally of her Ciattarelli by the National Archives in Washington. The mostly unredacted version of Sherrill’s records included her Social Security number; home addresses for her and her parents; life insurance information; performance evaluations; and the nondisclosure agreement between her and the U.S. government to safeguard classified information.

Sherrill has alleged that the leak was illegal and that the National Archives worked in coordination with the Trump administration.

The release came as the Ciattarelli campaign tried to raise questions about whether Sherrill was involved in a cheating scandal during her time in Annapolis in the early 1990s.

Sherrill has denied involvement. There no known evidence she cheated and those who were credibly accused of cheating were expelled.

Although she does not appear in the commencement program with the rest of her graduating class of 1994, Sherrill was commissioned in May of that year, according to a copy of her service record provided by the Navy Personnel Command Public Affairs Office.

In a statement, Sherrill said that during her time as an undergraduate, she did not "turn in some of my classmates," which is why she didn't walk but still graduated.

Republicans are still running on the Democrats being violent, terrorist supporting, letting men in the girls bathroom nonsense. These culture wars will not pay your rent, put food on your table, put money in your pocket or make your life better.

If the Republican continue to be big government nannies, they will lose. Trust me.

America, I know you're tired of politicians. I get it. I am frustrated with Democrats and Republicans. They are out of touch with reality.