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Friday, February 01, 2019

Groundhog Saw Its Shadow!

Sometimes, the good news isn't often great.
Despite the government shutdown, the Department of Labor announced there was net growth of 311,000 jobs for the month of January. That news comes with a price, the unemployment rate risen to 4 percent.

Reuters reports that Americans are working but

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. job growth surged in January, with employers hiring the most workers in 11 months, pointing to underlying strength in the economy despite an uncertain outlook that has left the Federal Reserve wary about more interest rate hikes this year.

The Labor Department said its closely watched monthly employment report on Friday showed no “discernible” impact on job growth from a 35-day partial government shutdown, while acknowledging it was unable to quantify the effect on private industry.

But the longest shutdown in history, which ended a week ago, pushed up the unemployment rate to a seven-month high of 4.0 percent. The report came two days after the Fed signaled its three-year interest rate hike campaign might be ending because of rising headwinds to the economy, including financial market volatility and softening global growth.

The brisk pace of hiring suggested still strong momentum in the economy, a theme that was also underscored by a separate report showing a pickup in manufacturing activity in January.

Wage gains, however, slowed, pointing to tame inflation.

“The Fed chickened out on further rate hikes this year and boy are they ever misreading the tea leaves on where the economy is going next,” said Chris Rupkey, chief economist at MUFG in New York. “U.S. companies have not let up one bit on their hiring in response to risks out there in the world economy.”

Nonfarm payrolls jumped by 304,000 jobs last month, the largest gain since February 2018, the Labor Department said. Job growth was boosted by hiring at construction sites, retailers and business services as well as at restaurants, hotels and amusement parks.

The economy, however, added 70,000 fewer jobs than previously reported in November and December. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast payrolls increasing by only 165,000 jobs in January. Roughly 100,000 per month are needed to keep up with growth in the working-age population.

January marked a record 100 straight months of job gains.

The government shutdown saw about 380,000 workers furloughed but President Donald Trump signed a law guaranteeing these employees back pay. As a result, these workers were included in the survey of employers from which the payrolls number is calculated.

The furloughed workers were, however, considered unemployed on “temporary layoff” in the separate survey of households from which the jobless rate is derived. This lifted the unemployment rate one-tenth of a percentage point from 3.9 percent in December. The shutdown ended last Friday after Trump and Congress agreed to temporary government funding, without money for his U.S.-Mexico border wall.

Average hourly earnings rose three cents, or 0.1 percent in January after accelerating 0.4 percent in December. That lowered the annual increase in wages to 3.2 percent from 3.3 percent in December, giving the employment report a Goldilocks feel.

The dollar was little changed against a basket of currencies as traders focused on the tepid monthly wage gain. Stocks on Wall Street rose, while U.S. Treasury prices fell.

The jobs that are hiring include: health care, food services, construction and manufacturing. These were contributions to the country's hiring.

Of course, we won't talk about GM closing up locations. We won't talk about Sears Holding Group closing up Kmart and Sears locations. We won't talk about the government shutdown that took 800,000 workers off the payroll. We won't talk about the wildfires in California. We won't talk about the hurricane damage in Puerto Rico, Florida, Texas, Louisiana, South Carolina, North Carolina and Georgia.

We continue to ignore that for every job being spread around, one area in the United States lost some.

The Midwest has lost more jobs than the Sun Belt states of Arizona, Texas, Florida and Nevada.

Those die-hard Trump supporters will say that his leadership is successful. All the while, they find that their average wages are stalling.

Food prices, energy prices, rent, city services and college education have risen over the past year.

Real Reason To Why Unemployment Rate Stays The Way It Is!

There are 104 million active body people not working in the United States. The examples of why they're not working.

1. DEAD

2. BORN

3. IN PRISON

4. IN PRIMARY SCHOOL

5. IN MIDDLE SCHOOL

6. IN HIGH SCHOOL

7. IN COLLEGE NOT LOOKING

8. VOLUNTEER

9. DISABLED 

10. STAY AT HOME PARENT

11. RETIRED

12. QUIT ON THEIR OWN

13. NOT HIRING QUALIFIED

14. NATURAL DISASTERS

15. ACTIVE MILITARY 

16. NOT HIRING TOO QUALIFIED

17. LAID OFF

18. FIRED FROM THE JOB

19. DESTRUCTION TO FACILITY

20. OUTSOURCING

21. IMMIGRANTS TOO AFRAID OF BEING DETAINED BY I.C.E.

22. SHAMED BY SOCIAL MEDIA

Let me remind you, that Trump and Republicans believe austerity is the key to a strong economy and job market. The Republicans are not in control of the House of Representatives. The Democrats now control the House and will push for an agenda that Trump will likely oppose. Republicans will continue to pass ridiculous laws that hurt the working class and middle class.

The Jobs and Tax Cut Act has added trillions of dollars of debt to the economy. The results of the tax cuts haven't produced the stability. It's still considered a very unpopular law.

Deregulation has made safety a top priority. Many rollbacks of regulations imposed by Barack Obama and previous presidents have also made things worse. The removal from the Paris Climate Accords and the Iranian Nuclear Deal made things worse.

Trump has created tension with trade partners.

I believe in less than three years, Trump and Republicans will once again throw us into another recession. If the Democrats take control of the White House in 2020, we're already prepared to hear the loudest voices on the right blame the Democratic president for the mess Republicans created.

I wonder how trolls feed themselves in this economy?

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