Friday, March 08, 2013

Roaring Back!


Even though we're going to see some significant changes to economy, the unemployment numbers came out pre-sequester. The unemployment numbers went down to 7.7% after two months being stuck at 8.1%.

Of course, we gotten through one full month since President Barack Obama won reelection. So far he's trying to get his cabinet and federal judicial picks in place.

This week alone, Senators Lindsay Graham (R-South Carolina), Rand Paul (R-Kentucky), Marco Rubio (R-Florida), Ted Cruz (R-Texas), Ron Johnson (R-Wisconsin), John McCain (R-Arizona), Jim Inhofe (R-Oklahoma) and Tim Scott (R-South Carolina) brought forth filibusters to nominations.

Republicans are in full out civil war with one another and an all out war with the president.

The unemployment numbers are certainly going to make the president's case for the economy. He pretty much winning the message war against the Republicans. Despite the media's attempts to blame him for Republican obstruction, the president has the opportunity to win this battle.

CNBC reports that job creation broke out in February, with the economy creating a net 236,000 new jobs as the unemployment rate fell to 7.7 percent.

Private job creation stood at a robust 246,000, finally indicating that the economy may be ready to escape the tight growth range in which it has been held since the financial crisis.

Service industries led the gains with 73,000 new jobs, while construction added 48,000 and health care provided 32,000. Retail also added 24,000.

A separate unemployment measure that includes workers no longer looking for jobs and those working part-time for economic reasons edged lower to 14.3 percent. At the same time, the labor force participation rate, which measures workers and those looking for jobs, also fell, to a 32-year low of 63.5 percent, tied with where it stood in August 2012.

The gain in job creation, as reported by the Labor Department, comes as Washington continues to debate mandatory spending cuts that took place at the beginning of March, lending to worry that the rise may not last.

"The big question was whether this much job creation can be sustained. The answer is now complicated by the budget cuts under the sequester," said Kathy Bostjancic, director of macroeconomic analysis at The Conference Board. "What is clear however, is that the labor market was gaining traction before the sequester."

Economists expected the 160,000 new jobs in February and the unemployment rate held steady at 7.9 percent.

However, there was anticipation that the number could come in a bit better than expected after ADP reported earlier this week that the private sector created 198,000 for the month.

Traders acted positive to the report, indicating the stock market was likely to continue its week-long winning streak at the Friday open. Treasury yields rose to an 11-month high, with the benchmark 10-year note yielding 2.07 percent

"Employers are following the historical trend of doing the bulk of their hiring in the first quarter; and the February numbers and January revisions support this fact," said Todd Schoenberger, managing partner at LandColt Capital in New York. "Traders will certainly cheer this data as the Dow should continue its trend of daily record-setting performances."

Average hourly earnings rose four cents to $23.82 an hour, while the average work week edged higher to 34.5 hours.

A large chunk of the jobs gains came through the birth-death model the Bureau of Labor Statistics uses to gauge the activity of newly created and lost businesses. That number came in at 102,000.

Investors watch the nonfarm payrolls number closely both to gauge general economic health and to discern future Federal Reservepolicy moves.

The central bank has kept interest rates near zero for the past four years and is buying $85 billion in Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities each month in an effort to stimulate growth.

Fed officials have said the rate policy will continue at least until unemployment drops to 6.5 percent and inflation rises to 2.5 percent. However, the bond buying, known as quantitative easing, likely will stop well ahead of that if the Fed sees sustained growth signals.

One caveat for the report was a downward revision in January, from an initially reported 157,000 down to 119,000. December's numbers, though, were revised up from 196,000 to 219,000.

Long-term unemployment remained a problem as well, with the average duration of joblessness accelerating to 36.9 weeks after a sharp drop in January to 35.3 weeks.

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